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“We understand that emotions will be high within the British agricultural community, but we have to keep everything within the context of what the data has told us."
ACCESSION to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will herald ‘new opportunities' for British farmers in a post-Brexit world, but results will not come immediately, according to AHDB.
Nicholas Saphir, AHDB chair, said the evidence showed the deal ‘will not be disastrous for UK farmers', highlighting there will be long-term benefits.
"Ultimately, the population will be wealthier as a result of the deal down the line," he added.
"We understand that emotions will be high within the British agricultural community, but we have to keep everything within the context of what the data has told us.
"It is an ongoing process and not an existential moment that will change everything."
He added it was a ‘fantastic opportunity' and the future was in the hands of the industry to meet the goals of the CPTPP.
The UK formally requested to join the CPTPP in 2021.
Figures from the Department for Business and Trade in 2021 revealed that the CPTPP trade bloc was populated by around half a billion people with a joint gross domestic product of £9 trillion.
Trade between the UK and CPTPP was worth £110.9 billion, representing 6.8 per cent of total UK trade by the end of quarter three, 2022.
UK exports to the CPTPP were worth £60.5 billion over the same period.
ADHB and Harper Adams University undertook four months of quantitative impact assessment research to understand the potential long-term opportunities.
Jess Corsair, AHDB trade and policy senior analyst, said beef exports from the UK to the CPTPP would increase by over 60 percent if the modelling was correct.
"In volume terms, this is an increase of about 1,404 tonnes," she said.
"To put this into context, the UK currently exports about 118,000t of fresh and frozen beef per year, with 2,355t going to CPTPP countries.
"In order to send more beef to CPTPP, there will be a reduction in UK exports to the EU of 256t, and the total output sold by the UK beef sector will increase by 667t."
She added there was no demand for UK lamb products but they expected a 23 per cent increase in pork exports.
Despite the slow short-term gains, Ms Corsair said there would be medium-to-long-term benefits as a whole for the UK.
"This could be dependent on China joining the CPTPP, which would be a huge opportunity for UK exports.
"It ultimately gets the UK a foot in the door of a vast economic market with huge potential."
