Sheep prices have held up very well so far this year, but reduced consumption and increased Australian imports could put pressure on them in the coming months.
The most recent GB deadweight price for lamb was 570p/kg, according to AHDB, down 4p on the week before, but still 57p/kg higher than the year before and the highest on record for the time of the year.
Sheep prices
In the week to November 11, liveweight prices were 268p/kg, up 16p/kg on the week and 20p/kg on the year. A 10 per cent reduction in slaughtering in recent weeks compared to 2022 is also giving the market support.
Last year, prices, especially deadweight ones, rose in the last six weeks of the year amid strong Christmas sales.
Isabelle Shohet, red meat analyst at AHDB, said: "Christmas demand will again play a part in influencing short-term prices.
"Retail promotions could drive sales, but there may be more competition from turkey and other meats this year."
The most recent retail figures compiled by Kantar for AHDB showed a slowing in the drop in demand which has occurred over the last two years.
Sales in the 12 weeks to October 1 were down 3.6 per cent, compared to 5.6 per cent over the 12-month period. Mince, steaks, marinaded cuts and diced/cubed products did better than last year, with roasting and grilled cuts/burgers down.
Supply and demand
Ms Shohet said: "There could be more pressure on consumption in 2024 if prices of lamb remain strong."
So far this year, UK lamb has benefited from reduced imports and higher exports. In the first nine months of the year, 63,140 tonnes of all types of sheepmeat were exported, which was 12 per cent more than the same period last year.
In contrast, imports have fallen by almost 12,000t to 43,680t. Ms Shohet warned imports could be on the rise.
Ms Shohet said: "There has been less coming from New Zealand, but there is more product under the Australian trade deal coming into the country.
"In September there were 1,200t from Australia, up 200t on the August figure and 750t on September 2022."
High finished lamb prices have supported store prices, with some lambs for finishing selling for up to £80/head. At such levels, producers may be questioning the margins they will be making on store lambs, which could trim their price.
